Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow are betting favourites; Aaron Donald a 12-to-1 longshot – The Athletic

Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow are the expected favorites to win the Super Bowl MVP title on Sunday. Stafford is +140 and Burrow is +225. These odds correlate with each team’s moneyline; Aries are -200; the Bengals are +165. Heading into NFL Championship weekend, Stafford’s odds were +330. Only one player on a losing team has ever won the MVP award (Chuck Howley in Super Bowl V; fun fact: Howley went on to found a cattle ranch his grandson now runs). And let’s be honest, that probably won’t change this year.

Quarterbacks dominate the award, having won 31 of 55 times. Running backs and wide receivers have each won the award seven times. On the defensive side of the ball, linebackers (four) won the most times. Desmond Howard won the Super Bowl XXXI MVP award for the Packers after rushing for 244 return yards and a touchdown. If you think the Bengals will be able to upset Burrow at +210, that’s probably a good bet, as you’ll be getting better odds than the traditional moneyline.

If you are looking to bet on Ja’Marr Chase (+1600)go ahead knowing this: no rookie has ever won the Super Bowl MVP title. Joe Burrow (+225) is the most popular bet on BetMGM with 18.5% tickets and 30% money.

A bettor bet $7,500 to win $120,000 on Aaron Donald and win the MVP title at +1600 odds. Another $1,000 bet on Evan McPherson at +10,000 odds to win $100,000.

All BetMGM odds. The odds were updated at 9 a.m. ET Sunday. Click here for live odds.

How MVP Voting Works

MVP voting usually takes place in the press box with more than five minutes remaining in the game. This means members of the media must lock in their votes with the game still undecided. This is why the quarterback so often ends up being the MVP. Media votes count for 80% of the total while fan votes on NFL.com count for 20%. If anyone other than Stafford or Burrow is going to win the MVP, the game will have to be a blowout with the big plays happening before the voting takes place at the end of the fourth quarter.

Cincinnati Bengals longshot MVP odds

If you want to get out of the quarterback zone, the best value for the Bengals may be in either Tee Higgins (+5000) Where Tyler Boyd (+10000) as it is likely that Jalen Ramsey will cover Chase on the ground to stop him. It’s possible to see a scenario where Higgins or Boyd have big plays because the Rams are focused on stopping Chase.

Los Angeles Rams MVP Odds

I think the Rams are a tough game for the Bengals, especially with their offensive line struggles. Aaron Donald (+1200) is the best defensive player in the league and he could win the award if the Rams defense dominates and Donald puts on a show. The media knows Donald and if the Rams offense struggles but they still win the game, Donald could get the nod. The last defensive player to win the Super Bowl MVP award was Von Miller in Super Bowl 50.

On the offensive side of the ball, Odell Beckham Jr. (+2500) continues to shine for the Rams since his nasty breakup with Baker Mayfield and the Browns. He scored six touchdowns in 11 games with the Rams. He’s averaging nearly 79 yards per game in the playoffs and the Bengals’ secondary can be cut up by the big play. Cooper Kupp sits at +600 and as he is Stafford’s #1 target; he’s probably the most likely non-quarterback to win this year.

More Super Bowl news

(Photo by Odell Beckham Jr.: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through the links in the article above.)

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